Anyone running a company knows the problem: short-term cash flow forecasts can be created with high accuracy — we know which invoices are still open and which incoming payments are secured for the coming weeks. But as soon as we look further into the future, uncertainty increases rapidly. Customers may drop out, deals may fall through or be delayed, funding rounds might unexpectedly fail — and suddenly you find yourself in a completely different financial reality.
For young companies in particular, this uncertainty can be existential. We at Tresio experienced this painfully ourselves in the early years. The “zero line” was constantly within reach, and it was essential to keep a very close eye on cash flow. But how do you plan when there are so many unknowns? The answer: scenario planning.
Instead of relying on a single, linear forecast, we started early on to model different what-if scenarios. This allowed us, within seconds, to see the impact that the loss of a major customer or a delayed funding round would have on our liquidity. The challenge: building a system flexible enough to incorporate new risks or opportunities ad hoc — without becoming overly complex or difficult to maintain.
In this article I’ll show how we at Tresio approached these challenges, which scenarios we built, and why scenario planning was absolutely vital for our survival.
Software Startup: Uncertainty is Part of the Game
As a young company, we faced the following challenges in our liquidity planning:
- The “zero line” was always in sight. Careful Runway Management was therefore essential.
- Significant uncertainties: Will the big deal close or not? Will we secure the funding round — or will it fall through? Mapping these uncertainties across different scenarios was vital for us.
- “Wind Down Plan” to protect the Board of Directors. To protect the board from potential personal liability, we created a worst-case cost-reduction plan to ensure we could always meet all obligations. This was our absolute worst-case plan, ready to be used at any time.
To address these needs, we built the following scenarios in Tresio:
Current Revenue Only
This was the baseline on which all following scenarios were built.
- Starting point: real-time liquidity pulled directly from all connected bank accounts
- Current cost base: planning data and HR planning (including confirmed new hires and salary adjustments)
- Confirmed revenue: recurring subscription income from Stripe, plus planning data for signed onboarding projects with larger customers
- With this scenario (no growth, no cost adjustments), we would run out of cash after a certain period.
BASE
Our Base Scenario. We used these numbers internally and for investor reporting.
- All data from Current Revenue Only is carried over
- In addition to existing customers, we assumed moderate new monthly business
- Revenue figures were estimated cautiously and conservatively
- The scenario remained slightly negative, but with a significantly flatter curve
Moderate – optimistic
- Data from the BASE scenario is carried over
- Customer acquisition according to our moderate growth plan
- Additional marketing spend
- The numbers were positive and created room for additional investments (not included in this scenario)
Cancellation of XY in Autumn
- Based on the Moderate – Optimistic scenario
- AdHoc scenario
- One of our largest customers (approx. 10% of revenue) informed us at short notice that they might not survive the summer
- We needed a rapid analysis of whether — and to what extent — this posed a risk to our cash flow and company liquidity
- I created this scenario during a meeting in under two minutes, and we immediately saw the impact clearly, black on white
Worst Case Scenario & Wind Down Plan
- Data from the BASE Scenario is carried over
- For the Board of Directors, we defined a detailed Wind Down Plan: Which measures should be taken at which remaining runway to reduce costs?
- Which additional (drastic) measures would be needed once runway hits 3 months, ensuring all salaries and social security contributions can still be paid and the board remains protected?
- What does the absolute worst-case plan look like if we cannot sell the company in such a scenario? Target: protect all stakeholders as much as possible and wind down the service in an orderly manner.
Scenario planning doesn’t need to be complex!
Thanks to well-designed links between data sources, our maintenance effort remained low despite having several scenarios in parallel — and we always had a clear action plan and were prepared for every possible development. This gave us as founders, but also our Board of Directors and shareholders (partially paid-in share capital with top-up obligations!), a great deal of confidence and security.
About Tresio
Precise liquidity planning is essential — but it shouldn’t be complicated. That’s exactly where Tresio comes in. With Tresio, you can create dynamic, transparent, and always up-to-date cash flow forecasts. Instead of working through complex Excel files, Tresio lets you simulate different scenarios with just a few clicks — whether it’s losing a major customer, planning a funding round, or mapping out an ambitious growth strategy.
Especially in uncertain times, Tresio provides the clarity needed to make informed decisions. With direct bank and finance system integrations, liquidity is always visible. This allows risks to be identified early and addressed proactively, rather than simply reacting to cash shortages.
🚀 Try Tresio for free and experience how simple smart liquidity planning can be: www.tresio.ch